Top 10 Key Swing Seats to Watch in the 2025 Federal Election
As the 2025 Federal Election draws near, the political landscape in Australia is heating up with intense competition in several key swing seats that could determine the outcome of the election. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has identified 51 marginal electorates where the battle for power will be fierce, and among them, there are 10 seats that stand out as the closest races.
Deakin (Victoria)
In Deakin, held by the Liberal Party’s Michael Sukkar, the margin is razor-thin at 0.02 per cent. Sukkar clinched the seat in 2022 by a mere 375 votes, despite facing a significant swing towards Labor. The redistribution of boundaries has made the contest even tighter, setting the stage for a fierce battle with Labor’s Matt Gregg.
Bennelong (NSW)
Bennelong, currently held by Labor’s Jerome Laxale, is on the edge with a slim margin of 0.04 per cent, notionally leaning towards the Liberal Party. This seat, historically a Liberal stronghold, now faces a tough fight as the boundaries have shifted, making it a battleground for Scott Yung of the Liberal Party.
Gilmore (NSW)
Fiona Phillips of the Labor Party narrowly secured victory in Gilmore in 2022, with a margin of just 0.17 per cent over Liberal Andrew Constance. Constance, a former NSW state minister, is back in the race, setting the stage for a tight contest in this closely watched seat.
Menzies (Victoria)
Keith Wolahan of the Liberal Party holds Menzies with a slim margin of 0.42 per cent, now notionally leaning towards Labor. The redistribution of seats has made this contest even more critical, as the battle for Menzies intensifies between Wolahan and Labor’s Naomi Oakley.
Sturt (South Australia)
James Stevens of the Liberal Party barely retained Sturt in 2022 with a margin of 0.45 per cent, facing a tough challenge from Labor’s Claire Clutterham this time around. This once-safe Liberal seat is now a battleground that could tip the scales in this year’s election.
Wentworth (NSW)
Wentworth, currently held by Independent Allegra Spender, is an intriguing addition to the list with a margin of 0.58 per cent. Despite being notionally a marginal seat, Spender’s stronghold faces uncertainty over the actual margin, making it a seat to watch closely in the upcoming election.
Moore (Western Australia)
Ian Goodenough of the Liberal Party faces a tough battle in Moore, with a slim margin of 0.91 per cent. The unexpected twist in this race comes as Goodenough lost his preselection bid, opting to run as an independent, potentially impacting the Coalition’s chances in this crucial Western Australian seat.
Lyons (Tasmania)
Labor’s Brian Mitchell stepping aside in Lyons opens the door for former state opposition leader Rebecca White to contest the seat with a margin of 0.92 per cent. The battle for Lyons pits White against Liberal candidate Susie Bower in what promises to be a closely fought race.
Lingiari (Northern Territory)
Marion Scrymgour of the Labor Party narrowly won Lingiari by 0.95 per cent in 2022, facing a tough challenge from the Country Liberal Party’s Lisa Siebert this year. The vast electorate outside Darwin and Palmerston is a key battleground that could sway the election outcome.
Canning (Western Australia)
Andrew Hastie of the Liberal Party in Canning faces a margin of 1.2 per cent, making it a critical seat in Western Australia. Despite winning comfortably in 2022, Hastie now faces a tough challenge from Labor’s Jarrad Goold in a closely watched contest.
The competition in these key swing seats is set to intensify as the election approaches, with each seat playing a crucial role in shaping the future government of Australia. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis as the battle for power unfolds across the nation.